Modeling the potential effects of climate change on high elevation vegetation in the Olympic Mountains

Journal Article · Thu Jun 01 04:00:00 EDT 1995 · Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America

OSTI ID:95907

Zolbrod, A N; Peterson, D L ^[1]

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1. Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)

Subalpine and alpine vegetation may be particularly sensitive to climatic change, such as expected temperature increases and altered precipitation patterns with global warming. The gap replacement model ZELIG was modified and used to examine transient and steady-state changes in altitudinal treeline, tree species distribution, and forest structure and composition along elevation gradients in the Olympic Mountains, Washington, under a range of temperature and precipitation changes. Changes in vegetation pattern were examined for north vs. south aspects, and wet (southwest) vs. dry (northeast) regions of the mountains. The seedling establishment subroutine in ZELIG was improved to specifically model the complexities of tree invasion in subalpine meadows and include empirical data. A function allowing for stand replacement fire was also added in order to examine the role of altered disturbance regimes on vegetation change. Results indicate that distribution of tree species will change under various climate change scenarios, but future elevation of treeline depends greatly on precipitation levels, disturbance frequency, and aspect.

• OSTI ID: 95907
• Report Number(s): CONF-9507129--
• Journal Information: Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America, Journal Name: Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America Journal Issue: 2 Vol. 76; ISSN BECLAG; ISSN 0012-9623
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

56 BIOLOGY AND MEDICINE
APPLIED STUDIES
BIOLOGICAL EFFECTS
CLIMATIC CHANGE
FORESTS
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
MOUNTAINS
POPULATION DYNAMICS
SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION
TREES
WASHINGTON