Information-Theoretic Approaches for Evaluating Complex Adaptive Social Simulation Systems
- ORNL
In this paper, we propose information-theoretic approaches for comparing and evaluating complex agent-based models. In information theoretic terms, entropy and mutual information are two measures of system complexity. We used entropy as a measure of the regularity of the number of agents in a social class; and mutual information as a measure of information shared by two social classes. Using our approaches, we compared two analogous agent-based (AB) models developed for regional-scale social-simulation system. The first AB model, called ABM-1, is a complex AB built with 10,000 agents on a desktop environment and used aggregate data; the second AB model, ABM-2, was built with 31 million agents on a highperformance computing framework located at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and fine-resolution data from the LandScan Global Population Database. The initializations were slightly different, with ABM-1 using samples from a probability distribution and ABM-2 using polling data from Gallop for a deterministic initialization. The geographical and temporal domain was present-day Afghanistan, and the end result was the number of agents with one of three behavioral modes (proinsurgent, neutral, and pro-government) corresponding to the population mindshare. The theories embedded in each model were identical, and the test simulations focused on a test of three leadership theories - legitimacy, coercion, and representative, and two social mobilization theories - social influence and repression. The theories are tied together using the Cobb-Douglas utility function. Based on our results, the hypothesis that performance measures can be developed to compare and contrast AB models appears to be supported. Furthermore, we observed significant bias in the two models. Even so, further tests and investigations are required not only with a wider class of theories and AB models, but also with additional observed or simulated data and more comprehensive performance measures.
- Research Organization:
- Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- DOE Contract Number:
- DE-AC05-00OR22725
- OSTI ID:
- 958999
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: Human Behavior-Computational Modeling and Interoperability (HB-CMI) conference, Oak Ridge, TN, USA, 20090623, 20090624
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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