Ground-Motion Simulations of Scenario Earthquakes on the Hayward Fault

Conference · Mon Mar 09 04:00:00 EDT 2009

OSTI ID:950062

Aagaard, B; Graves, R; Larsen, S; Ma, S; Rodgers, A; Ponce, D; Schwartz, D; Simpson, R; Graymer, R

We compute ground motions in the San Francisco Bay area for 35 Mw 6.7-7.2 scenario earthquake ruptures involving the Hayward fault. The modeled scenarios vary in rupture length, hypocenter, slip distribution, rupture speed, and rise time. This collaborative effort involves five modeling groups, using different wave propagation codes and domains of various sizes and resolutions, computing long-period (T > 1-2 s) or broadband (T > 0.1 s) synthetic ground motions for overlapping subsets of the suite of scenarios. The simulations incorporate 3-D geologic structure and illustrate the dramatic increase in intensity of shaking for Mw 7.05 ruptures of the entire Hayward fault compared with Mw 6.76 ruptures of the southern two-thirds of the fault. The area subjected to shaking stronger than MMI VII increases from about 10% of the San Francisco Bay urban area in the Mw 6.76 events to more than 40% of the urban area for the Mw 7.05 events. Similarly, combined rupture of the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults in a Mw 7.2 event extends shaking stronger than MMI VII to nearly 50% of the urban area. For a given rupture length, the synthetic ground motions exhibit the greatest sensitivity to the slip distribution and location inside or near the edge of sedimentary basins. The hypocenter also exerts a strong influence on the amplitude of the shaking due to rupture directivity. The synthetic waveforms exhibit a weaker sensitivity to the rupture speed and are relatively insensitive to the rise time. The ground motions from the simulations are generally consistent with Next Generation Attenuation ground-motion prediction models but contain long-period effects, such as rupture directivity and amplification in shallow sedimentary basins that are not fully captured by the ground-motion prediction models.

• Research Organization: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• DOE Contract Number: W-7405-ENG-48
• OSTI ID: 950062
• Report Number(s): LLNL-PROC-411178
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

58 GEOSCIENCES
AMPLIFICATION
AMPLITUDES
ATTENUATION
EARTHQUAKES
FORECASTING
GEOLOGIC STRUCTURES
GROUND MOTION
HYPOCENTERS
PULSE RISE TIME
RUPTURES
SAN FRANCISCO BAY
SEDIMENTARY BASINS
SENSITIVITY
SLIP
STREAMS
URBAN AREAS
VELOCITY
WAVE FORMS
WAVE PROPAGATION