Predicting future threats to the long-term survival of Gila Trout using a high-resolution simulation of climate change
Regional climates are a major factor in determining the distribution of many species. Anthropogenic inputs of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere have been predicted to cause rapid climatic changes in the next 50-100 years. Species such as the Gila Trout (Onchorhynchus gilae) that have small ranges, limited dispersal capabilities, and narrow physiological tolerances will become increasingly susceptible to extinction as their climate envelope changes. This study uses a regional climate change simulation (Leung et al. 2004) to determine changes in the climate envelope for Gila Trout, which is sensitive to maximum temperature, associated with a plausible scenario for greenhouse gas increases. The model predicts approximately a 2° C increase in temperature and a doubling by the mid 21st Century in the annual number of days during which temperature exceeds 37°C, and a 25% increase in the number of days above 32°C, across the current geographical range of Gila Trout. At the same time summer rainfall decreases by more than 20%. These climate changes would reduce their available habitat by decreasing the size of their climate envelope. Warmer temperatures coupled with a decrease in summer precipitation would also tend to increase the intensity and frequency of forest fires that are a major threat to their survival. The climate envelope approach utilized here could be used to assess climate change threats to other rare species with limited ranges and dispersal capabilities.
- Research Organization:
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830
- OSTI ID:
- 947036
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-54398; CLCHDX; KP1205030; TRN: US200904%%371
- Journal Information:
- Climatic Change, Journal Name: Climatic Change; ISSN 0165-0009
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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