Proliferation resistance modeling.
The National Nuclear Security Administration is developing methods for nonproliferation assessments. A working group on Nonproliferation Assessment Methodology (NPAM) assembled a toolbox of methods for various applications in the nonproliferation arena. One application of this methodology is to the evaluation of the proliferation resistance of Generation IV nuclear energy systems. This paper first summarizes the key results of the NPAM program and then provides results obtained thus far in the ongoing application, which is co-sponsored by the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy Science and Technology. In NPAM, a top-level measure of proliferation resistance for a fuel cycle system is developed from a hierarchy of metrics. The problem is decomposed into: metrics to be computed, barriers to proliferation, and a finite set of threats. The analyst models the process undertaken by the proliferant to overcome barriers to proliferation and evaluates the outcomes. In addition to proliferation resistance (PR) evaluation, the application also addresses physical protection (PP) evaluation against sabotage and theft. The Generation IV goal for future nuclear energy systems is to assure that they are very unattractive and the least desirable route for diversion or theft of weapons-usable materials, and provide increased physical protection against terrorism. An Expert Group, addressing this application, has identified six high-level measures for the PR goals (six measures have also been identified for the PP goals). Combined together, the complete set of measures provides information for program policy makers and system designers to compare specific system design features and integral system characteristics and to make choices among alternative options. The Group has developed a framework for a phased evaluation approach to analyzing PR and PP of system characteristics and to quantifying metrics and measures. This approach allows evaluations to become more detailed and representative as system design progresses. Three sequential levels of detail are anticipated: qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative evaluation of the metrics and measures.
- Research Organization:
- Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA); NE
- DOE Contract Number:
- DE-AC02-06CH11357
- OSTI ID:
- 925120
- Report Number(s):
- ANL/NE/CP-111771; TRN: US0802320
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: ESARDA/INMM Workshop; Oct 14-16, 2003; Como, Italy
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- ENGLISH
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