Climate change projected fire weather sensitivity: CaliforniaSanta Ana wind occurrence

Journal Article · Sun Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 2006 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL025808· OSTI ID:923407

Miller, Norman L; Schlegel, Nicole J

A new methodbased on global climate model pressuregradients was developed for identifying coastal high-wind fire weatherconditions, such as the Santa Ana Occurrence (SAO). Application of thismethod for determining southern California Santa Ana wind occurrenceresulted in a good correlation between derived large-scale SAOs andobserved offshore winds during periods of low humidity. The projectedchange in the number of SAOs was analyzed using two global climatemodels, one a low temperature sensitivity and the other amiddle-temperature sensitivity, both forced with low and high emissionscenarios, for three future time periods. This initial analysis showsconsistent shifts in SAO events from earlier (September-October) to later(November-December) in the season, suggesting that SAOs may significantlyincrease the extent of California coastal areas burned by wildfires, lossof life, and property.

• Research Organization: Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley NationalLaboratory, Berkeley, CA (US)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• DOE Contract Number: AC02-05CH11231
• OSTI ID: 923407
• Report Number(s): LBNL--61004; BnR: 600305000
• Journal Information: Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: L15711 Vol. 33; ISSN GPRLAJ; ISSN 0094-8276
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
CLIMATE MODELS
CLIMATES
HUMIDITY
PRESSURE GRADIENTS
SENSITIVITY
WEATHER