A Mathematical Statistics Formulation of the Teleseismic Explosion Identification Problem with Multiple Discriminants

Journal Article · Mon Oct 01 04:00:00 EDT 2007 · Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 97(5):1730-1741

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1785/0120060052· OSTI ID:921556

Anderson, Dale N; Fagan, Deborah K; Tinker, Mark; Kraft, Gordon; Hutchenson, Kevin

Seismic monitoring for underground nuclear explosions answers three questions for all global seismic activity: Where is the seismic event located? What is the event source type (event identification)? If an explosion, what is the yield? Resolution to these questions often involves a seismic analyst processing strong seismic wave propagation with a path largely in the mantle, that is, teleseismic events. This paper develops a mathematical statistics formulation of the teleseismic theory that is the basis for event identification. The four discriminants used to identify teleseismic events are depth from travel time, presence of long-period surface energy (mb versus Ms ), depth from reflective phases, and polarity of first motion. For each discriminant a probability model is formulated under a general null hypothesis of H0 : Explosion Characteristics. The veracity of the hypothesized model is measured with a p-value calculation that is filtered to be approximately Gaussian and ranges between zero and one. A value near zero indicates inconsistency with Explosion Characteristics, and a moderate to large value indicates consistency with Explosion Characteristics (see Stuart et al. (1994)). The hypothesis test formulation ensures that seismic phenomenology is tied to the interpretation of the p-value. Established statistical discrimination methods can be used to formulate a unified decision using all observed discriminants.

• Research Organization: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (US)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• DOE Contract Number: AC05-76RL01830
• OSTI ID: 921556
• Report Number(s): PNNL-SA-49313; NN2003000
• Journal Information: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 97(5):1730-1741, Journal Name: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 97(5):1730-1741 Journal Issue: 5 Vol. 97; ISSN BSSAAP; ISSN 0037-1106
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEFENSE
EXPLOSIONS
HYPOTHESIS
MONITORING
NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS
PROBABILITY
PROCESSING
RESOLUTION
SEISMIC EVENTS
SEISMIC WAVES
STATISTICS
SURFACE ENERGY
seismic discrimination