GHG Mitigation Potential, Costs and Benefits in Global Forests: ADynamic Partial Equilibrium Approach

Technical Report · Tue Mar 22 04:00:00 EST 2005

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/920244· OSTI ID:920244

Sathaye, Jayant; Makundi, Willy; Dale, Larry; Chan, Peter; Andrasko, Kenneth

This paper reports on the global potential for carbonsequestration in forest plantations, and the reduction of carbonemissions from deforestation, in response to six carbon price scenariosfrom 2000 to 2100. These carbon price scenarios cover a range typicallyseen in global integrated assessment models. The world forest sector wasdisaggregated into tenregions, four largely temperate, developedregions: the European Union, Oceania, Russia, and the United States; andsix developing, mostly tropical, regions: Africa, Central America, China,India, Rest of Asia, and South America. Three mitigation options -- long-and short-rotation forestry, and the reduction of deforestation -- wereanalyzed using a global dynamic partial equilibrium model (GCOMAP). Keyfindings of this work are that cumulative carbon gain ranges from 50.9 to113.2 Gt C by 2100, higher carbon prices early lead to earlier carbongain and vice versa, and avoided deforestation accounts for 51 to 78percent of modeled carbon gains by 2100. The estimated present value ofcumulative welfare change in the sector ranges from a decline of $158billion to a gain of $81 billion by 2100. The decline is associated witha decrease in deforestation.

• Research Organization: Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley NationalLaboratory, Berkeley, CA (US)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE Director, Office of Science; Environmental ProtectionAgency
• DOE Contract Number: AC02-05CH11231
• OSTI ID: 920244
• Report Number(s): LBNL--58291; BnR: 400408000
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
CARBON
CARBON SEQUESTRATION
DEFORESTATION
FORESTRY
FORESTS
GCOMAP GHG mitigation global forests partial equilibriummodel
MITIGATION
PRICES