Realistic Probability Estimates For Destructive Overpressure Events In Heated Center Wing Tanks Of Commercial Jet Aircraft
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) identified 17 accidents that may have resulted from fuel tank explosions on commercial aircraft from 1959 to 2001. Seven events involved JP 4 or JP 4/Jet A mixtures that are no longer used for commercial aircraft fuel. The remaining 10 events involved Jet A or Jet A1 fuels that are in current use by the commercial aircraft industry. Four fuel tank explosions occurred in center wing tanks (CWTs) where on-board appliances can potentially transfer heat to the tank. These tanks are designated as ''Heated Center Wing Tanks'' (HCWT). Since 1996, the FAA has significantly increased the rate at which it has mandated airworthiness directives (ADs) directed at elimination of ignition sources. This effort includes the adoption, in 2001, of Special Federal Aviation Regulation 88 of 14 CFR part 21 (SFAR 88 ''Fuel Tank System Fault Tolerance Evaluation Requirements''). This paper addresses SFAR 88 effectiveness in reducing HCWT ignition source probability. Our statistical analysis, relating the occurrence of both on-ground and in-flight HCWT explosions to the cumulative flight hours of commercial passenger aircraft containing HCWT's reveals that the best estimate of HCWT explosion rate is 1 explosion in 1.4 x 10{sup 8} flight hours. Based on an analysis of SFAR 88 by Sandia National Laboratories and our independent analysis, SFAR 88 reduces current risk of historical HCWT explosion by at least a factor of 10, thus meeting an FAA risk criteria of 1 accident in billion flight hours. This paper also surveys and analyzes parameters for Jet A fuel ignition in HCWT's. Because of the paucity of in-flight HCWT explosions, we conclude that the intersection of the parameters necessary and sufficient to result in an HCWT explosion with sufficient overpressure to rupture the HCWT is extremely rare.
- Research Organization:
- Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- DOE Contract Number:
- W-7405-ENG-48
- OSTI ID:
- 908110
- Report Number(s):
- UCRL-CONF-228030; TRN: US200722%%436
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: Presented at: 5th International Seminar on Fire and Explosion Hazards, Edinburgh, United Kingdom, Apr 23 - Apr 27, 2007
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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