Future consumption and emissions of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) alternatives to CFCs: Comparison of estimates using top-down and bottom-up approaches
- ICI Chemicals & Polymers Ltd., Runcorn (United Kingdom)
Two methods of estimating the future requirements for chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are compared. The top-down method, in which growth in demand is factored from the global Gross National Product (GNP), and the bottom-up method, where the demand is calculated by extrapolating the historic demand for CFC-12 and HCFC-22, are shown to produce very similar results. A market in the region of 150 000 tonnes/year for the principal replacement, HFC-134a, is predicted for 1995/1996, rising to 310 000 tonnes/year in 2020/2025. The methods differ in the descriptions of the growth; the to-down method predicts increasing growth and the bottom-up approach predicts a diminishing growth rate typical of a market reaching saturation. Of the two, the diminishing growth rate is more likely for this type of material. Demand for a compound such as HFC-32, which could substitute for HFC-22, is predicted to reach a plateau of 80-90 000 tonnes/year by 2025. Potential emissions of the compounds may be considerably less than predicted if even present-day technology for containment is adopted. 31 refs., 6 figs, 2 tabs.
- OSTI ID:
- 90785
- Journal Information:
- Environment International, Vol. 21, Issue 4; Other Information: PBD: 1995
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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