Climatic Forecasting of Net Infiltration at Yucca Mountain UsingAnalogue Meteorological Data
Journal Article
·
· Vadoze Zone Journal
OSTI ID:903043
At Yucca Mountain, NV, future changes in climatic conditionswill probably alter net infiltration, drainage below the bottom of theevapotranspiration zone within the soil profile, or flow across theinterface between soil and the densely welded part of the Tiva CanyonTuff. The objectives of this study were to: (i) develop a semiempiricalmodel and forecast average net infiltration rates, using the limitedmeteorological data from analog meteorological stations, for interglacial(present day), and future monsoon, glacial transition, and glacialclimates over the Yucca Mountain region; and (ii) corroborate thecomputed net infiltration ratesby comparing them with the empiricallyand numerically determined groundwater recharge and percolation ratesthrough the unsaturated zone from published data. This study approachedcalculations of net infiltration, aridity, and precipitationeffectiveness indices using a modified Budyko's water-balance model, withreference-surface potential evapotranspiration determined from theradiation-based Penman formula. Results of calculations show that netinfiltration rates are expected to generally increase from thepresent-day climate to monsoon climate, to glacial transition climate,and then to the glacial climate, following a power law relationshipbetween net infiltration and precipitation. The forecasting resultsindicate the overlap between the ranges of net infiltration for differentclimates. Forecasting of net infiltration for different climate states issubject to numerous uncertainties associated with selecting climateanalog sites, using relatively short analog meteorological records,neglecting the effects of vegetation and surface runoff and run-on on alocal scale, as well as possible anthropogenically induced climatechanges.
- Research Organization:
- Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley NationalLaboratory, Berkeley, CA (US)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Office of Civilian Radioactive WasteManagement
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC02-05CH11231
- OSTI ID:
- 903043
- Report Number(s):
- LBNL--59279; BnR: YN1901000
- Journal Information:
- Vadoze Zone Journal, Journal Name: Vadoze Zone Journal Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 6
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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