1999 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study.
The Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study (White Book) is published annually by BPA and establishes the planning basis for supplying electricity to customers. It serves a dual purpose. First, the White Book presents projections of regional and Federal system load and resource capabilities, along with relevant definitions and explanations. Second, the White Book serves as a benchmark for annual BPA determinations made pursuant to its regional power sales contracts. Specifically, BPA uses the information in the White Book for determining the notice required when customers request to increase or decrease the amount of power purchased from BPA. The White Book will not be used in calculations for the 2002 regional power sales contract subscription process. The White Book compiles information obtained from several formalized resource planning reports and data submittals, including those from the Northwest Power Planning Council (Council) and the Pacific Northwest Utilities Conference Committee (PNUCC). The White Book is not an operational planning guide, nor is it used for determining BPA revenues. Operation of the Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS) is based on a set of criteria different from that used for resource planning decisions. Operational planning is dependent upon real-time or near-term knowledge of system conditions, including expectations of river flows and runoff, market opportunities, availability of reservoir storage, energy exchanges, and other factors affecting the dynamics of operating a power system. In this loads and resources study, resource availability is compared with a medium forecast of electricity consumption. The forecasted future electricity demands--firm loads--are subtracted from the projected capability of existing and ''contracted for'' resources to determine whether BPA and the region will be surplus or deficit. If Federal system resources are greater than loads in any particular year or month, there is a surplus of energy and/or capacity, which BPA may use or market to increase revenues. Conversely, if Federal system firm loads exceed available resources, there is a deficit of energy and/or capacity and BPA would add conservation or contract purchases as needed to meet its firm loads. The load forecast is derived by using econometric models and analysis to predict the loads that will be placed on electric utilities in the region. This study incorporates information on contract obligations and contract resources, combined with the resource capabilities obtained from public utility and investor-owned utility (IOU) customers through their annual data submittals to the PNUCC, from BPA's Firm Resource Exhibit (FRE Exhibit I) submittals, and through analysis of the Federal hydroelectric power system. The loads and resources analysis in this study simulates the operation of the power system under the Pacific Northwest Coordination Agreement (PNCA) produced by the Pacific Northwest Coordinating Group. The PNCA defines the planning and operation of the regional hydrosystem. The 1999 White Book is presented in two documents: (1) this summary of Federal system and Pacific Northwest region loads and resources; and (2) a technical appendix (available electronically only) detailing the loads and resources for each major Pacific Northwest generating utility. This analysis updates the December 1998 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study. This analysis projects the yearly average energy consumption and resource availability for Operating Years (OY) 2000-01 through 2009-10. The study shows the Federal system's and the region's monthly estimated maximum electricity demand, monthly energy demand, monthly energy generation, and monthly maximum generating capability--capacity--for OY 2000-01, 2004-05, and 2009-10. The Federal system and regional monthly capacity surplus/deficit projections are summarized for 10 operating years. This document analyzes the Pacific Northwest's projected loads and available generating resources in two parts: (1) the loads and resources of the Federal system, for which BPA is the marketing agency; and (2) the larger Pacific Northwest regional power system, which includes loads and resources in addition to the Federal system.
- Research Organization:
- Bonneville Power Administration (BPA), Portland, OR (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- OSTI ID:
- 900300
- Report Number(s):
- DOE/BP-3242; TRN: US200711%%318
- Resource Relation:
- Related Information: Also called: "The White Book."
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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