Predicting Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Modes with a Climate Modeling Hierarchy -- Final Report

Technical Report · Fri Aug 04 04:00:00 EDT 2006

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/889817· OSTI ID:889817

Michael Ghil, UCLA ^[1]; Padhraic Smyth, UC Irvine

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1. UCLA

The goal of the project was to determine midlatitude climate predictability associated with tropical-extratropical interactions on interannual-to-interdecadal time scales. Our strategy was to develop and test a hierarchy of climate models, bringing together large GCM-based climate models with simple fluid-dynamical coupled ocean-ice-atmosphere models, through the use of advanced probabilistic network (PN) models. PN models were used to develop a new diagnostic methodology for analyzing coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions in large climate simulations made with the NCAR Parallel Climate Model (PCM), and to make these tools user-friendly and available to other researchers. We focused on interactions between the tropics and extratropics through atmospheric teleconnections (the Hadley cell, Rossby waves and nonlinear circulation regimes) over both the North Atlantic and North Pacific, and the ocean’s thermohaline circulation (THC) in the Atlantic. We tested the hypothesis that variations in the strength of the THC alter sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, and that the latter influence the atmosphere in high latitudes through an atmospheric teleconnection, feeding back onto the THC. The PN model framework was used to mediate between the understanding gained with simplified primitive equations models and multi-century simulations made with the PCM. The project team is interdisciplinary and built on an existing synergy between atmospheric and ocean scientists at UCLA, computer scientists at UCI, and climate researchers at the IRI.

• Research Organization: University of California, Los Angeles, CA
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE - Office of Environment, Safety and Health (EH)
• DOE Contract Number: FG03-01ER63260
• OSTI ID: 889817
• Report Number(s): Final Report; fund #22414
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
58 GEOSCIENCES
CLIMATE MODELS
CLIMATES
COMPUTERS
FEEDING
HYPOTHESIS
SIMULATION
climate change
climate modeling