Characterization and stochastic modeling of earthquake faulting in California. Final Report
- Stanford Univ., CA (United States)
The objective of this report is to develop a time- and space-dependent probabilistic earthquake occurrence model for seismic hazard analysis. In order to study the space and time behavior of earthquakes along major faults, project investigators first evaluated slip rate and event interarrival time data for the San Andreas fault. These data were considered in the context of a model of the fault comprised of a series of segments that can rupture either independently or together with other segments. In Part One of this report, a slip-predictable model with random slip was used to generate probabilities of occurrences for all segments of the fault. In Part Two, a generalized semi-Markov model was developed that describes the temporal and spatial dependence of seismic events. Using the first model, investigators found large probabilities of occurrence of magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes for many segments of the fault. Using the second model, investigators found that the North Coast and South Santa Cruz Mountains segments of the fault typically generate quakes of magnitude 7.8 to 8.2 and 6.9 to 7.2 respectively.
- Research Organization:
- Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States); Stanford Univ., CA (United States). Dept. of Civil Engineering
- Sponsoring Organization:
- Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States)
- OSTI ID:
- 88608
- Report Number(s):
- EPRI-TR--104390
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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