Physically-Based Global Downscaling: Climate Change Projections for a Full Century

Journal Article · Mon May 01 04:00:00 EDT 2006 · Journal of Climate, 19(9):1589-1604

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3701.1· OSTI ID:882372

Ghan, Steven J; Shippert, Timothy R

A global atmosphere/land model with an embedded subgrid orography scheme is used to simulate the period 1977-2100 using ocean surface conditions and radiative constituent concentrations for a climate change scenario. Climate variables simulated for multiple elevation classes are mapping according to the high-resolution of topography in ten regions with complex terrain. Analysis of changes in the simulated climate lead to the following conclusions. Changes in precipitation vary widely, with precipitation increasing more with increasing altitude in some region, decreasing more with altitude in others, and changing little in still others. In some regions the sign of the precipitation change depends on surface elevation. Changes in surface air temperature are rather uniform, with at most a two-fold difference between the largest and smallest changes within a region. In most cases the warming increases with altitude. Changes in snow water are highly dependent on altitude. Absolute changes usually increase with altitude, while relative changes decrease. In places where snow accumulates, an artificial upper bound on snow water limits the sensitivity of snow water to climate change considerably. The simulated impact of climate change on regional mean snow water varies widely, with little impact in regions in which the upper bound on snow water is the dominant snow water sink, moderate impact in regions with a mixture of seasonal and permanent snow, and profound impacts on regions with little permanent snow.

• Research Organization: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (US)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• DOE Contract Number: AC05-76RL01830
• OSTI ID: 882372
• Report Number(s): PNNL-SA-44150; KP1703020
• Journal Information: Journal of Climate, 19(9):1589-1604, Journal Name: Journal of Climate, 19(9):1589-1604 Journal Issue: 9 Vol. 19; ISSN JLCLEL; ISSN 0894-8755
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITATIONS
CLIMATE MODELS
CLIMATIC CHANGE
COMPLEX TERRAIN
FORECASTING
OCEANOGRAPHY
SENSITIVITY
SURFACE AIR
TOPOGRAPHY