Potential impact of global climate change on malaria risk

Journal Article · Mon May 01 04:00:00 EDT 1995 · Environmental Health Perspectives

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.95103458· OSTI ID:83410

Martens, W J.M.; Rotmans, J ^[1]; Niessen, L W ^[1]; Jetten, T H ^[2]; McMichael, A J ^[3]

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1. National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection, Bilthoven (Netherlands)
2. Wageningen Agricultural Univ. (Netherlands)
3. London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (United Kingdom)

The biological activity and geographic distribution of the malarial parasite and its vector are sensitive to climatic influences, especially temperature and precipitation. We have incorporated General Circulation Model-based scenarios of anthropogenic global climate change in an integrated linked-system model for predicting changes in malaria epidemic potential in the next century. The concept of the disability-adjusted life years is included to arrive at a single measure of the effect of anthropogenic climate change on the health impact of malaria. Assessment of the potential impact of global climate change on the incidence of malaria suggests a widespread increase of risk due to expansion of the areas suitable for malaria transmission. This predicted increase is most pronounced at the borders of endemic malaria areas and at higher altitudes within malarial areas. The incidence of infection is sensitive to climate changes in areas of Southeast Asia, South America, and parts of Africa where the disease is less endemic; in these regions the numbers of years of healthy life lost may increase significantly. However, the simulated changes in malaria risk must be interpreted on the basis of local environmental conditions, the effects of socioeconomic developments, and malaria control programs or capabilities. 33 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab.

• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• OSTI ID: 83410
• Journal Information: Environmental Health Perspectives, Journal Name: Environmental Health Perspectives Journal Issue: 5 Vol. 103; ISSN EVHPAZ; ISSN 0091-6765
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
55 BIOLOGY AND MEDICINE
BASIC STUDIES
AFRICA
ASIA
ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITATIONS
BIOLOGICAL EFFECTS
CLIMATIC CHANGE
DISEASE INCIDENCE
EPIDEMIOLOGY
MALARIA
RISK ASSESSMENT
SOUTH AMERICA
TEMPERATURE DEPENDENCE