Demonstration Integrated Knowledge-Based System for Estimating Human Error Probabilities

Conference · Wed Apr 21 04:00:00 EDT 1999

OSTI ID:8234

Auflick, Jack L ^[1]

---

1. Los Alamos National Laboratory

Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is currently comprised of at least 40 different methods that are used to analyze, predict, and evaluate human performance in probabilistic terms. Systematic HRAs allow analysts to examine human-machine relationships, identify error-likely situations, and provide estimates of relative frequencies for human errors on critical tasks, highlighting the most beneficial areas for system improvements. Unfortunately, each of HRA's methods has a different philosophical approach, thereby producing estimates of human error probabilities (HEPs) that area better or worse match to the error likely situation of interest. Poor selection of methodology, or the improper application of techniques can produce invalid HEP estimates, where that erroneous estimation of potential human failure could have potentially severe consequences in terms of the estimated occurrence of injury, death, and/or property damage.

• Research Organization: Los Alamos National Lab., NM (US)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE Office of Defense Programs (DP) (US)
• DOE Contract Number: W-7405-ENG-36
• OSTI ID: 8234
• Report Number(s): LA-UR-98-3935
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

42 ENGINEERING
ERRORS
HUMAN FACTORS
KNOWLEDGE BASE
MAN-MACHINE SYSTEMS
PERFORMANCE
PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION
RELIABILITY
RISK ASSESSMENT
SYSTEMS ANALYSIS