Termination Report
OAK-B135 The results produced by this project include: (1) Development of econometrically estimated marginal abatement and associated production curves describing response of agricultural and forestry emissions/sink/offsets enhancements for use in integrated assessments. Curves were developed that reflected agricultural, and forestry production of traditional commodities, carbon and other greenhouse gas offsets and biofuels given signals of general commodity demand, and carbon and energy prices. This work was done jointly with Dr. Ronald Sands at PNNL. A paper from this is forthcoming as follows Gillig, D., B.A. McCarl, and R.D. Sands, ''Integrating Agricultural and Forestry GHG Mitigation Response into General Economy Frameworks: Developing a Family of Response Functions,'' Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, forthcoming, 2004. An additional effort was done involving dynamics and a second paper was prepared that is annex A to this report and is Gillig, D., and B.A. McCarl, ''Integrating Agricultural and Forestry Response to GHG Mitigation into General Economy Frameworks: Developing a Family of Response Functions using FASOM,'' 2004. (2) Integration of the non dynamic curves from (1) into in a version of the PNNL SGM integrated assessment model was done in cooperation with Dr. Ronald Sands at PNNL. The results were reported at the second DOE conference on sequestration in the paper listed just below and the abstract is in Annex B of this report. Sands, R.D., B.A. McCarl, and D. Gillig, ''Assessment of Terrestrial Carbon Sequestration Options within a United States Market for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reductions,'' Presented at the Second Conference on Carbon Sequestration, Alexandria, VA, May 7, 2003. The results in their latest version show about half of the needed offsets by 2030 can be achieved through agriculture through a mix of sequestration and biofuel options. (3) Alternative agricultural sequestration estimates were developed in conjunction with personnel at Colorado State University using CENTURY and analyses can operate under the use of agricultural soil carbon data from either the EPIC or CENTURY models. (4) A major effort was devoted to understanding the possible role and applicable actions from agriculture. Papers have been drafted from this as follows and are in the process of being finalized for publication. Lee, H.C., and B.A. McCarl, ''U.S. Agricultural and Forest Carbon Sequestration Over Time: An Economic Exploration,'' 2004. Lee, H.C., B.A. McCarl, and D. Gillig, ''The Dynamic Competitiveness of U.S. Agricultural and Forest Carbon Sequestration,'' 2004. (5) Results have been presented in front of a number of scientific and policy bodies. These include the CASMGS, Non CO2 Network, Energy Modeling Forum on the science side and the Government of Japan, the Council of Economic Advisors , DOE, USDA and EPA on the policy side. Input has also been provided to the IPCC design of the fourth assessment report. (6) Work was done with EPA and EIA to update the biofuel data and assumptions resulting in some now emerging results showing the criticality of biofuel assumptions.
- Research Organization:
- Texas Agricultural Experiment Station (US)
- DOE Contract Number:
- FG03-00ER63034
- OSTI ID:
- 820633
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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