Projections of motor vehicle growth, fuel consumption and CO{sub 2} emissions for the next thirty years in China.

Conference · Tue Dec 12 04:00:00 EST 2000

OSTI ID:772103

He, D; Wang, M

Since the early 1990s, China's motor vehicles have entered a period of fast growth resultant from the rapid economic expansion. As the largest developing country, the fast growth of China's motor vehicles will have tremendous effects on the world's automotive and fuel market and on global CO{sub 2} emissions. In this study, we projected Chinese vehicle stocks for different vehicle types on the provincial level. First, we reviewed the historical data of China's vehicle growth in the past 10 years and the correlations between vehicle growth and economic growth in China. Second, we investigated historical vehicle growth trends in selected developed countries over the past 50 or so years. Third, we established a vehicle growth scenario based on the historical trends in several developed nations. Fourth, we estimated fuel economy, annual mileage and other vehicle usage parameters for Chinese vehicles. Finally, we projected vehicle stocks and estimated motor fuel use and CO{sub 2} emissions in each Chinese province from 2000 to 2030. Our results show that China will continue the rapid vehicle growth, increase gasoline and diesel consumption and increased CO{sub 2} emissions in the next 30 years. We estimated that by year 2030, Chinese motor vehicle fuel consumption and CO{sub 2} emissions could reach the current US levels.

• Research Organization: Argonne National Lab., IL (US)
• Sponsoring Organization: US Department of Energy (US)
• DOE Contract Number: W-31109-ENG-38
• OSTI ID: 772103
• Report Number(s): ANL/ES/CP-102554
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

02 PETROLEUM
CHINA
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
ECONOMICS
FUEL CONSUMPTION
GASOLINE
MARKET
MOTORS