Models for proliferation interdiction response analysis. Master`s thesis

Thesis/Dissertation · Thu Sep 01 04:00:00 EDT 1994

OSTI ID:76280

Reed, B K

The proliferation of nuclear weapons poses a serious threat to the United States, its allies, and over-all world security. The United States seeks to dissuade or prevent new countries from acquiring nuclear weapons capabilities. This thesis constructs two models to aid decision makers in selecting strategies to interdict these proliferation efforts. The first, a what-if PERT/CPM model, provides an overall picture of the proliferation process. The graphical display is used to select activities to interdict, and to analyze the outcome of the choices. The second, an optimal interdiction model, selects the optimal activity(ies) or interdiction subject to risk constraints. Several runs with different numbers of interdiction points were made to test the optimal interdiction model. These results are further analyzed with the aid of the PERT/CPM model. The models, when used together, prove to be useful in selecting the optimal activities to interdict in the proliferation process.

• Research Organization: Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA (United States)
• OSTI ID: 76280
• Report Number(s): AD-A--288645/5/XAB
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

35 ARMS CONTROL
ARMS CONTROL
HYPOTHESIS
NUCLEAR WEAPONS
PROLIFERATION