Characterization of stochastic uncertainty in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant
- Sandia National Laboratories
The 1996 performance assessment (PA) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) maintains a separation between stochastic (i.e., aleatory) and subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty, with stochastic uncertainty arising from the possible disruptions that could occur at the WIPP over the 10,000 yr regulatory period specified by the US Environmental Protection Agency (40 CFR 191, 40 CFR 194) and subjective uncertainty arising from an inability to uniquely characterize many of the inputs required in the 1996 WIPP PA. The characterization of stochastic uncertainty is discussed including drilling intrusion time, drilling location penetration of excavated/nonexcavated areas of the repository, penetration of pressurized brine beneath the repository, borehole plugging patterns, activity level of waste, and occurrence of potash mining. Additional topics discussed include sampling procedures, generation of individual 10,000 yr futures for the WIPP, construction of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs), mechanistic calculations carried out to support CCDF construction the Kaplan/Garrick ordered triple representation for risk and determination of scenarios and scenario probabilities.
- Research Organization:
- Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (US); Sandia National Labs., Livermore, CA (US)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- US Department of Energy (US)
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC04-94AL85000
- OSTI ID:
- 755472
- Report Number(s):
- SAND99-1882J
- Journal Information:
- Reliability Engineering and System Safety (Special Journal Issue), Journal Name: Reliability Engineering and System Safety (Special Journal Issue)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Related Subjects
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE WASTES FROM NUCLEAR FACILITIES
40 CFR 191
40 CFR 194
ALEATORY UNCERTAINTY
COMPLEMENTARY CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION
COMPLIANCE CERTIFICATION APPLICATION
DATA COVARIANCES
EPISTEMIC UNCERTAINTY
HUMAN INTRUSION
LATIN HYPERCUBE SAMPLING
PERFORMANCE
PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT
PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION
RADIATION ACCIDENTS
RADIOACTIVE WASTE
RANDOM SAMPLING
RISK ASSESSMENT
SCENARIO
STOCHASTIC UNCERTAINTY
SUBJECTIVE UNCERTAINTY
TRANSURANIC WASTE
WASTE ISOLATION PILOT PLANT
WATER INFLUX
WELL DRILLING
WIPP