Evolution of the OPEC current account surplus: recent trends, likely developments, and major policy implications
During the past two years, it has become apparent that the period of massive current account surpluses will shortly be ended for most OPEC countries. By late in this decade, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates will be the four countries that will still be in current surplus. This evolution in the magnitude and the distribution of the overall OPEC surplus and its economic and financial implications are analyzed. The major implications of the analysis are that: (1) particularly for the developed nations which as a group will be in rough current balance this year, the international adjustment process has worked effectively, and more rapidly than most have thought possible, to narrow the financial imbalance induced by higher oil prices; (2) the existing international financial structure can handle the recycling of surplus funds from the OPEC countries without serious disruption; (3) higher oil prices have dealt a harsh blow to the development aspirations of the Less Developed Countries; (4) all of the OPEC countries should begin to plan for the time when their financial resources no longer exceed their requirements; and (5) trends in world oil supply and demand in the next decade will be molded by policy decisions taken now. (MCW)
- Research Organization:
- Morgan Guaranty Trust Co. of New York
- OSTI ID:
- 7363659
- Journal Information:
- J. Energy Dev.; (United States), Journal Name: J. Energy Dev.; (United States) Vol. 1:2; ISSN JENDD
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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CHARGES
ECONOMIC POLICY
ENERGY POLICY
ENERGY SOURCES
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUELS
GOVERNMENT POLICIES
INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
MARKET
OPEC
PETROLEUM