Federal energy planning: scenarios for disaster

Journal Article · Thu Apr 01 04:00:00 EST 1976 · World Oil; (United States)

OSTI ID:7340484

Franssen, H T

Careful analysis of the U.S. energy budget between now and 1985 can only lead to one conclusion: The United States is not likely to get even close to self-sufficiency by 1985. We will, instead, become increasingly dependent on Arab oil imports. Worse, considering many unresolved problems in the Middle East and the limited capacity of some key producing countries to absorb capital, it is not certain that enough Arab oil to fill the gap between U.S. demand and domestic supply will be available through the next decade and beyond--and if available, at what cost. With the large lead times required to shift our oil- and gas-dependent economy to coal, nuclear power, synthetic fuels and other nonconventional energy sources, it is easy to conclude that our nation has limited options in the short and intermediate term. Even if the United States maximizes these domestic oil and gas options, we will still be more dependent on Arab oil in 1985 than we are today. And if no serious efforts are made to increase self-sufficiency, that dependency will continue to grow in the long term, well beyond the middle 1980s. Thus, our energy policy should reflect short, intermediate and long-term needs. The basic premises of Project Independence must be turned into an active policy to maximize domestic supplies of fossil fuels and nonconventional energy that can contribute to total needs by the middle 1980s. Meanwhile, substantial R and D outlays are needed to develop alternative energy sources in time to replace dwindling oil and gas resources, as their final peak is reached. While these efforts are underway, our nation must be made aware of the growing dependence on foreign oil. And, because Saudi Arabia and several other Middle Eastern countries do not need to produce at a maximum rate to meet foreign exchange requirements, a new cooperative and mutually beneficial state of interdependence must be created.

• Research Organization: Library of Congress, Washington, DC
• OSTI ID: 7340484
• Journal Information: World Oil; (United States), Journal Name: World Oil; (United States) Vol. 182:5; ISSN WOOIA
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

02 PETROLEUM
021000* -- Petroleum-- Legislation & Regulations
03 NATURAL GAS
031000 -- Natural Gas-- Legislation & Regulations
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
293000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Policy
Legislation
& Regulation
294002 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Petroleum
294003 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Natural Gas
ENERGY POLICY
ENERGY SOURCES
FLUIDS
FOSSIL FUELS
FUEL GAS
FUELS
GAS FUELS
GASES
GOVERNMENT POLICIES
INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
NATURAL GAS
NORTH AMERICA
OPEC
PETROLEUM
PROJECT INDEPENDENCE
USA