Sensitivity of modeled ozone concentrations to uncertainties in biogenic emissions

Technical Report · Mon Jun 01 04:00:00 EDT 1992

OSTI ID:7303799

Roselle, S J

The study examines the sensitivity of regional ozone (O3) modeling to uncertainties in biogenic emissions estimates. The United States Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Regional Oxidant Model (ROM) was used to simulate the photochemistry of the northeastern United States for the period July 2-17, 1988. An operational model evaluation showed that ROM had a tendency to underpredict O3 when observed concentrations were above 70-80 ppb and to overpredict O3 when observed values were below this level. On average, the model underpredicted daily maximum O3 by 14 ppb. Spatial patterns of O3, however, were reproduced favorably by the model. Several simulations were performed to analyze the effects of uncertainties in biogenic emissions on predicted O3 and to study the effectiveness of two strategies of controlling anthropogenic emissions for reducing high O3 concentrations. Biogenic hydrocarbon emissions were adjusted by a factor of 3 to account for the existing range of uncertainty in these emissions. The impact of biogenic emission uncertainties on O3 predictions depended upon the availability of NOx. In some extremely NOx-limited areas, increasing the amount of biogenic emissions decreased O3 concentrations. Two control strategies were compared in the simulations: (1) reduced anthropogenic hydrocarbon emissions, and (2) reduced anthropogenic hydrocarbon and NOx emissions. The simulations showed that hydrocarbon emission controls were more beneficial to the New York City area, but that combined NOx and hydrocarbon controls were more beneficial to other areas of the Northeast. Hydrocarbon controls were more effective as biogenic hydrocarbon emissions were reduced, whereas combined NOx and hydrocarbon controls were more effective as biogenic hydrocarbon emissions were increased.

• Research Organization: Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States). Atmospheric Research and Exposure Assessment Lab.
• OSTI ID: 7303799
• Report Number(s): PB-92-192202/XAB; EPA--600/R-92/067
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290301 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Environment
Health
& Safety-- Regional & Global Environmental Aspects-- (1992-)
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
540120* -- Environment
Atmospheric-- Chemicals Monitoring & Transport-- (1990-)
AIR POLLUTION
AIR POLLUTION CONTROL
BIOSPHERE
CHALCOGENIDES
CHEMICAL REACTIONS
CONTROL
DATA COVARIANCES
DISTRIBUTION
ECOLOGICAL CONCENTRATION
EMISSION
HYDROCARBONS
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
METEOROLOGY
NITROGEN COMPOUNDS
NITROGEN OXIDES
ORGANIC COMPOUNDS
OXIDES
OXYGEN COMPOUNDS
OZONE
PHOTOCHEMICAL REACTIONS
POLLUTION
POLLUTION CONTROL
REGIONAL ANALYSIS
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION