Use of an influence diagram and fuzzy probability for evaluating accident management in a boiling water reactor

Journal Article · Wed Jun 01 04:00:00 EDT 1994 · Nuclear Technology; (United States)

OSTI ID:7292419

Yu, D; Kastenberg, W E; Okrent, D ^[1]

---

1. Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States). Mechanical, Aerospace, and Nuclear Engineering Dept.

A new approach is presented for evaluating the uncertainties inherent in severe accident management strategies. At first, this analysis considers accident management as a decision problem (i.e., applying a strategy compared with do nothing) and uses an influence diagram. To evaluate imprecise node probabilities in the influence diagram, the analysis introduces the concept of a fuzzy probability. When fuzzy logic is applied, fuzzy probabilities are easily propagated to obtain results. In addition, the results obtained provide not only information similar to the classical approach, which uses point-estimate values, but also additional information regarding the impact of using imprecise input data. As an illustrative example, the proposed methodology is applied to the evaluation of the drywell flooding strategy for a long-term station blackout sequence at the Peach Bottom nuclear power plant. The results show that the drywell flooding strategy is beneficial for preventing reactor vessel breach. It is also effective for reducing the probability of containment failure for both liner melt-through and late overpressurization. Even though uncertainty exists in the results, flooding is preferred to do nothing when evaluated in terms of two risk measures: early and late fatalities.

• OSTI ID: 7292419
• Journal Information: Nuclear Technology; (United States), Journal Name: Nuclear Technology; (United States) Vol. 106:3; ISSN 0029-5450; ISSN NUTYBB
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS
210100 -- Power Reactors
Nonbreeding
Light-Water Moderated
Boiling Water Cooled
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS
220900* -- Nuclear Reactor Technology-- Reactor Safety
ACCIDENTS
BLACKOUTS
BWR TYPE REACTORS
DATA COVARIANCES
ENRICHED URANIUM REACTORS
EVALUATION
FUZZY LOGIC
MATHEMATICAL LOGIC
PEACH BOTTOM-2 REACTOR
PEACH BOTTOM-3 REACTOR
POWER REACTORS
REACTOR ACCIDENTS
REACTORS
THERMAL REACTORS
WATER COOLED REACTORS
WATER MODERATED REACTORS