Economic analysis of declining petroleum supplies in Texas: income, employment, tax, and production effects as measured by input-output and supply-demand simulation models. Project S/D-2 and S/D-3, final report
The present and future role of petroleum as a source of taxable income, employment, economic growth, importance as a raw material for the chemical industry, and changes in the economy of Texas that can be expected as a result of declining availability of domestic oil and gas are analyzed. Consumer demand of the 11.8 million people of Texas, out-of-state demand, government sector demand, and demands for capital are estimated. Energy prices, oil and gas supply response to prices, price elasticity of demands, and income elasticity of demands for the outputs of each sector are estimated and entered as data for the analyses. Computer-calculated annual simulations of the time stream of standard economic indicators are presented, including employment, personal incomes, taxes, savings, industrial sector output, gross state product, and prices of natural gas, electricity, and petroleum products. Projections are made of both aggregate energy demand and individual fuel demands by user class for each of five policy variables and eight parameter estimates. The impacts of reducing exports of crude oil and natural gas as compared with increasing imports when supplies are short can be estimated. The magnitude of fuel substitution from changing relative prices of fuels can be estimated for the current technology of use for natural gas, petroleum products, coal, and nuclear fuels. The impacts of prices, fuel substitutions, and oil imports are determined, and results indicate that the key policy options are domestic wellhead price regulation and Federal import tax fees or quotas. 22 references.
- Research Organization:
- Texas Governor's Energy Advisory Council, Austin (USA)
- OSTI ID:
- 7274917
- Report Number(s):
- NSF-RA-N-74-225
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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29 ENERGY PLANNING
POLICY AND ECONOMY
ENERGY POLICY
SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS
TEXAS
PETROLEUM INDUSTRY
ECONOMICS
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
GOVERNMENT POLICIES
INDUSTRY
NORTH AMERICA
SOUTHWEST REGION
USA
021000* - Petroleum- Legislation & Regulations
530100 - Environmental-Social Aspects of Energy Technologies- Social & Economic Studies- (-1989)