Seismic monitoring capability in the Soviet Union using hypothetical regional networks: Final technical report, February 1986-August 1987

Technical Report · Tue Aug 18 04:00:00 EDT 1987

OSTI ID:7254300

Bratt, S R; Bache, T C; Williams, D J

The capabilities of hypothetical networks designed for nuclear test monitoring in the Soviet Union are described. This is done with a network simulation program that is an extension of the SNAPD program for computing the detection threshold and location uncertainty for a specified seismic network. Our hypothetical networks all include 13 high quality arrays external to the Soviet Union. To this network we add from 10 to 50 evenly spaced arrays and stations within the Soviet Union and determine the effects on monitoring capability. We have extended the location uncertainty calculations in SNAPD to include the contribution of azimuth estimates from arrays and three-component stations and to estimate the uncertainty from a suite of Monte-Carlo realizations of the sets of detecting stations. The key to valid simulations is accurate normalization to empirical experience; that is, to select appropriate values for the parameters controlling the simulation results. These include the amplitude-distance curves, the station detection thresholds, the source assumptions, and the assumed variance. Our normalization is based om empirical experience with the NORESS array in Norway, but we carefully explore the effect of changing the important assumptions. As a result of this analysis, we are able to place bounds on the detection threshold and location uncertainty for these hypothetical networks which are expressed in tables and plots. We find that achieving a detection threshold of m/sub b/ 2.5 throughout the Soviet Union would require one or more of the following: (1) 20 or more in-country arrays of NORESS type; (2) seismic wave propagation in the Soviet Union that is more efficient than we observe near NORESS; (3) station sites that have significantly lower detection thresholds than NORESS; (4) a significantly improved ability to process and analyze seismic data.

• Research Organization: Science Applications International Corp., San Diego, CA (USA)
• OSTI ID: 7254300
• Report Number(s): SAIC-87/1752; ON: TI88900631
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

350300 -- Arms Control-- Verification-- (1987-)
45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEFENSE
450300* -- Military Technology
Weaponry
& National Defense-- Nuclear Explosion Detection
98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL PROTECTION
ASIA
COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION
DETECTION
DOCUMENT TYPES
EASTERN EUROPE
EUROPE
MEASURING INSTRUMENTS
NUCLEAR EXPLOSION DETECTION
PROGRESS REPORT
RESOLUTION
SEISMIC ARRAYS
SENSITIVITY
SIMULATION
SPATIAL RESOLUTION
USSR
VERIFICATION