Urban rail transit projects: Forecast versus actual ridership and costs. Final report

Technical Report · Sun Oct 01 04:00:00 EDT 1989

OSTI ID:7199495

Pickrell, D H

Substantial errors in forecasting ridership and costs for the ten rail transit projects reviewed in the report put forth the possibility that more accurate forecasts would have led decision-makers to select projects other than those reviewed. The study examines the accuracy of forecasts prepared for ten major capital improvement projects in nine urban areas during 1971-1987. Each project includes construction of a fixed transit guideway: Rapid Rail or Metrorail (Washington DC, Atlanta, Baltimore, Miami); Light Rail Transit (Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Portland, Sacramento); and Downtown Peoplemover (Miami and Detroit). The study examines why actual costs and ridership differed so markedly from their forecast values. It focuses on the accuracy of projections made available to local decision-makers at the time when the choice among alternative projects was actually made. The study compares forecast and actual values for four types of measures: ridership, capital costs and financing, operating and maintenance costs, and cost-effectiveness. The report is organized into 6 chapters, numerous tables, and an appendix that documents the sources of all data appearing in the tables presented in the report.

• Research Organization: Transportation Systems Center, Cambridge, MA (USA)
• OSTI ID: 7199495
• Report Number(s): PB-90-148693/XAB
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
320203* -- Energy Conservation
Consumption
& Utilization-- Transportation-- Land & Roadway
ACCURACY
COST
DECISION MAKING
DOCUMENT TYPES
FINANCING
FORECASTING
LAND TRANSPORT
MAINTENANCE
OPERATING COST
PROGRESS REPORT
RAIL TRANSPORT
RAPID TRANSIT SYSTEMS
TABLES
TRANSPORT
TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS
URBAN AREAS