Prediction of population risks: A comprehensive assessment methodology

Conference · Wed Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1992 · Transactions of the American Nuclear Society; (United States)

OSTI ID:7194434

Yuan, Y C ^[1]; MacFarlane, D R ^[2]

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1. Square Y Consultants, Orchard Park, NY (United States)
2. Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)

The recent U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear safety policy establishes safety goals, which require that the risk to an average individual for prompt fatalities that might result from accidents should not exceed 0.1% of the sum of prompt fatalities resulting from other accidents and the risk to the population for cancer fatalities that might result from operations should not exceed 0.1% of the sum of all cancer fatality risks resulting from all other causes. To demonstrate that these safety goals are met, each DOE site will be required to evaluate the expected frequencies of occurrence and the corresponding radiation effects for all potential accident scenarios. Also required, for evaluation purposes, is that individuals are assumed to be located within a mile of the site boundary for prompt fatalities and 10 miles for latent cancer fatalities. Most available computer codes for population risk assessment from nonreactor accidents are based on calculations made using either centerline or sector-averaged air concentrations. These approaches could be totally inadequate for estimating prompt fatalities from severe accidents with large radioactive releases. This paper describes a comprehensive approach recently developed to estimate more accurately the populations risks from an accidental release of radioactive materials. A sample calculation was made for a hypothetical accident involving the release of part of the contents inside a high-level waste storage tank.

• OSTI ID: 7194434
• Report Number(s): CONF-920606--
• Conference Information: Journal Name: Transactions of the American Nuclear Society; (United States) Journal Volume: 65
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

054000* -- Nuclear Fuels-- Health & Safety
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS
A CODES
ACCIDENTS
ANIMAL TISSUES
BIOLOGICAL EFFECTS
BIOLOGICAL RADIATION EFFECTS
BODY
BONE MARROW
COMPUTER CODES
CONTAMINATION
DEATH
DISEASES
DOSE LIMITS
DOSES
ENVIRONMENTAL EXPOSURE PATHWAY
HEMATOPOIETIC SYSTEM
HUMAN POPULATIONS
INGESTION
INTAKE
LATENCY PERIOD
LETHAL DOSES
LETHAL RADIATION DOSE
MATERIALS
MAXIMUM PERMISSIBLE DOSE
METEOROLOGY
NATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
NEOPLASMS
NUCLEAR FACILITIES
ORGANS
POPULATIONS
PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION
RADIATION ACCIDENTS
RADIATION DOSES
RADIATION EFFECTS
RADIOACTIVE MATERIALS
RISK ASSESSMENT
SAFETY STANDARDS
SOURCE TERMS
STANDARDS
TIME DEPENDENCE
TISSUES
US DOE
US NRC
US ORGANIZATIONS