An interactive distribution load forecasting methodology for minicomputer use based upon a Markov - type process
An efficient comprehensive methodology is described which allows interactive forecasting of distribution substation load growth and load sharing, with application to the determination of an economically feasible timing schedule for adding substation capacity. A BASIC-language implementation illustrating some of its capabilities is discussed. Load growth is expressed by a Gompertz model whose parameters are evaluated from historical data; however, other load growth models may be easily implemented. Load transfer, which may be set to begin at any percentage of substation capacity, is accomplished stochastically in the algorithm by means of a quasi-Markov process. Default load transfer threshold, load transfer flags, and other parameters are under direct control of the user and may be set to conform to individual base-case and historical data. The implementation of this algorithm for minicomputer use as an interactive planning and instructional tool is discussed, and a small example is presented.
- Research Organization:
- Dept. of Electrical and Computer Engineering, New Mexico State Univ., Las Cruces, NM (US)
- OSTI ID:
- 7169458
- Journal Information:
- IEEE Trans. Power Syst.; (United States), Journal Name: IEEE Trans. Power Syst.; (United States) Vol. 3:1; ISSN ITPSE
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Related Subjects
990220* -- Computers
Computerized Models
& Computer Programs-- (1987-1989)
ALGORITHMS
BASIC
COMPUTER NETWORKS
COMPUTERS
DEMAND
DEMONSTRATION PROGRAMS
ELECTRONIC CIRCUITS
ENERGY DEMAND
FORECASTING
MARKOV PROCESS
MATHEMATICAL LOGIC
MICROELECTRONIC CIRCUITS
MICROPROCESSORS
PERFORMANCE
PROGRAMMING LANGUAGES
SCHEDULES
STOCHASTIC PROCESSES