Electricity forecasting and planning report. Volume I. Decision analysis framework for future electrical planning

Technical Report · Mon Nov 01 04:00:00 EST 1976

OSTI ID:7108157

Judd, B R; Jones, H G.M.; Miller, III, A C

One major responsibility of the California Energy Resources Conservation and Development Commission is to regulate the location of thermal electric power plants and related transmission facilities. The Electricity Forecasting and Planning Report consists of two volumes; the second presents detailed staff analyses under Public Resources Code Section 25305 of the twenty-year forecasts of loads and resources of California's five major electric utilities. This report, Volume I, presents an electrical planning overview, and outlines and illustrates an interpretive framework for integrating future staff analyses and assisting the Commission's regulatory decisions on the need for additional generation capacity. The methods proposed focus on one major decision faced by the Commission, that is, how fast to allow expansion of California's electrical system. The analysis addresses the issue of choosing a correct capacity expansion rate on a statewide basis and gaining insight into the consequences of overbuilding and underbuilding. The problem is reduced to its fundamentals by considering planning capacity for a single future year, 1985. The criterion for making the decision is basically consumer net benefit: benefits from consumption minus electricity service costs and outage costs. Environmental costs were not included, although the extension of this economic framework to include environmental tradeoffs is described elsewhere. A fundamental element of the analytical approach is the balancing of electrical demand (the outcome) with a system of electrical supply (the decision). (MCW)

• Research Organization: California Energy Resources Conservation and Development Commission, Sacramento (USA)
• OSTI ID: 7108157
• Report Number(s): NP-21950
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
292000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
296000* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Electric Power
CALIFORNIA
COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS
DECISION MAKING
ECONOMICS
ELECTRIC POWER
FORECASTING
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
NORTH AMERICA
PLANNING
POWER
USA
WESTERN REGION