Estimating runoff prediction uncertainty using a physically-based stochastic watershed model

Thesis/Dissertation · Thu Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1987

OSTI ID:7082279

Goldman, D M

The prediction of peak discharges for ungaged watersheds is an important problem for engineering design of many different types of water resource projects. In this dissertation, a physically based stochastic (PBS) watershed model is developed that attempts to estimate the uncertainty involved in predicting peak discharge for ungaged watersheds. The PBS descriptor is used because simplified equations of conservation of mass and momentum are used as the physical basis for model formulation, and model parameters are assumed to be stochastic to account for prediction uncertainty. The uncertainty in predicted peak discharges is quantified by deriving the probability distribution for peak discharge resulting from model simulations of a given rainfall event. The watershed response to rainfall is represented in the PBS model by the infiltration and flow of water over two overland flow planes. The simplified equations of mass and momentum used to describe this motion of water are the Green and Ampt equations for infiltration and the kinematic wave equations for overland flow. The parameters of these equations are estimated from the observable watershed characteristics obtainable from commonly available soil surveys and topographic maps.

• Research Organization: California Univ., Davis (USA)
• OSTI ID: 7082279
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290300 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Environment
Health
& Safety
290400* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Energy Resources
520100 -- Environment
Aquatic-- Basic Studies-- (-1989)
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
ENVIRONMENTAL TRANSPORT
FORECASTING
HYDROGEN COMPOUNDS
MASS TRANSFER
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
OXYGEN COMPOUNDS
RAIN WATER
RESOURCES
RUNOFF
STOCHASTIC PROCESSES
WATER
WATER RESOURCES
WATERSHEDS