Liberian macroeconomy and simulation of sectoral energy demand: 1981-2000
The primary purpose of this report is to document the results of a research effort on end-use, sector energy demand in Liberia, West Africa over the 1981-2000 time horizon. The research was undertaken as one component of a much broader integrated energy assessment of Liberia. Other components of the assessment, however, focused on current energy supply and consumption together with future energy supply options for Liberia. This particular report is devoted exclusively to a discussion of Liberian energy demand. The methodology utilized to simulate Liberian sectoral energy demand over the period 1981-2000 involved the recursive interaction of a macroeconomic model and individual, econometrically-estimated sectoral demand equations. That is, given the projections for gross output in the Liberian economy from the macroeconomic model, sectoral energy demand was simulated. The individual energy demand equations were estimated on the basis of economic variables that are theorized to influence energy consumption in the respective sectors (e.g., price, output). The primary conclusion drawn from the analysis is that, besides being sensitive to changes in international economic activity, the demand for energy in Liberia over the 1981 to 2000 horizon is highly sensitive to internal production of its two primary exports: iron ore and rubber. More specifically, as characterized in the four scenarios, future growth in Liberian energy demand is contingent on the output of three companies: the Liberian American Swedish Mining Company, the Bong Mining Company, and the Firestone Rubber Company. Therefore, expansion of Liberia's energy supply capacity in the future should proceed cautiously. 16 references, 6 figures, 15 tables.
- Research Organization:
- Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC05-84OR21400
- OSTI ID:
- 7066006
- Report Number(s):
- ORNL/TM-9065; ON: DE84013665
- Resource Relation:
- Other Information: Portions are illegible in microfiche products. Original copy available until stock is exhausted
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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POLICY AND ECONOMY
CHARCOAL
ENERGY DEMAND
ELECTRIC POWER
FUEL OILS
GAS OILS
GASOLINE
IRON ORES
EXPORTS
JET ENGINE FUELS
KEROSENE
LIBERIA
ENERGY ANALYSIS
NATURAL RUBBER
PETROLEUM
IMPORTS
WOOD
DATA COMPILATION
ECONOMETRICS
FORECASTING
PRICES
SIMULATION
ADSORBENTS
AFRICA
DATA
DEMAND
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
ECONOMICS
ELASTOMERS
ENERGY SOURCES
FOSSIL FUELS
FUELS
INFORMATION
LIQUID FUELS
NUMERICAL DATA
OILS
ORES
ORGANIC COMPOUNDS
ORGANIC POLYMERS
OTHER ORGANIC COMPOUNDS
PETROLEUM FRACTIONS
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
POLYMERS
POWER
RUBBERS
292000* - Energy Planning & Policy- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
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