Uncertainty assessment for acid deposition

Conference · Sun Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1984

OSTI ID:7009497

Berkowitz, C M; Renne, D S

Mathematical models will be used quite extensively to assess current damages and to evaluate control and mitigation strategies for acid deposition. Policy makers will rely on these models to determine the most cost-effective policy options. Source/receptor models, describing atmospheric processes in the transport, transformation, and removal of acid precursors, are among the models used in the assessment process. However, the uncertainty associated with these models needs to be quantified to allow policy makers to discriminate among various policy options. This task is designed to provide quantitative information on the uncertainty of source/receptor models due to several important atmospheric processes: interannual meteorological variability, the effect of vertical wind shear on transport calculations, the effect of temporal and spatial precipitation variability on the wet deposition calculations, and the effect of assumptions of linear chemistry in the calculations. An assessment-oriented Lagrangian model called the Advanced Statistical Regional Air Pollution Model (ASTRAP) is used against which these various atmospheric processes are compared. Interannual meteorological variability will be assessed using 16 years of meteorological data as input to ASTRAP for given emission conditions. The effects of vertical shear will be evaluated by comparing a multi-layer model output against a single-layer version of the same model, then relating this information back to ASTRAP. Precipitation statistics will be evaluated using a model which incorporates temporal and spatial precipitation data. Non-linear chemistry will be evaluated using an atmospheric chemistry model. Statistical techniques will be utilized to evaluate relative significance of input parameters to the uncertainty of these atmospheric processes, and to aggregate the effect of each of these processes into total assessment-model uncertainty.

• Research Organization: Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: AC06-76RL01830
• OSTI ID: 7009497
• Report Number(s): PNL-SA-11907; CONF-840269-9; ON: DE84011897
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290300 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Environment
Health
& Safety
500200* -- Environment
Atmospheric-- Chemicals Monitoring & Transport-- (-1989)
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
ACID RAIN
ANNUAL VARIATIONS
ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY
ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITATIONS
CHEMISTRY
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
GEOGRAPHICAL VARIATIONS
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
METEOROLOGY
PROBABILITY
RAIN
VARIATIONS
WIND