An intercomparison of general circulation model predictions of regional climate change

Conference · Wed Nov 01 04:00:00 EST 1989

OSTI ID:6984809

Grotch, S. L.

Simulations using the best-available general circulation models (GCMs) to estimate the sensitivity of the climate to a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration are in broad general agreement that, at equilibrium, the global annual average surface air temperature would increase about 2--5K. Because of considerable public interest in potential climate changes due to greenhouse gases, there is pressure to use the predictions of these GCM simulations for regional climate assessments. In this work, statistical intercomparisons were made of the estimates for both the control and the equilibrium changes in surface air temperature and precipitation after a doubling of atmospheric CO{sub 2} as predicted by five GCMs. Intercomparisons were also made with historical data for the simulations of current climate. Two data fields which are of particular importance in regional impact studies are examined here: (1) surface air temperature and (2) precipitation. The seasonally averaged results predicted by five GCMs are intercompared among models and with observational data for the control climate over different scales. Intercomparisons are also made among the models for predictions of the change at equilibrium in these two variables after a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. 11 refs., 13 figs.

• Research Organization: Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (USA)
• Sponsoring Organization: DOE/ER
• DOE Contract Number: W-7405-ENG-48
• OSTI ID: 6984809
• Report Number(s): UCRL-102793; CONF-8909308--1; ON: DE90008325
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
540120* -- Environment
Atmospheric-- Chemicals Monitoring & Transport-- (1990-)
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS
990200 -- Mathematics & Computers
AIR
CARBON COMPOUNDS
CARBON DIOXIDE
CARBON OXIDES
CHALCOGENIDES
CLIMATES
COMPARATIVE EVALUATIONS
DISTRIBUTION
ECOLOGICAL CONCENTRATION
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
FLUIDS
FORECASTING
GASES
GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS
GLOBAL ASPECTS
GREENHOUSE EFFECT
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
MATHEMATICS
OXIDES
OXYGEN COMPOUNDS
PRECIPITATION
REGIONAL ANALYSIS
SEPARATION PROCESSES
SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION
STATISTICS
SURFACE AIR
TEMPERATURE DEPENDENCE
VARIATIONS