Deterministic sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for large-scale computer models

Conference · Fri Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1988

OSTI ID:6972370

Worley, B A; Pin, F G; Oblow, E M; Maerker, R E; Horwedel, J E; Wright, R Q

This paper presents a comprehensive approach to sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of large-scale computer models that is analytic (deterministic) in principle and that is firmly based on the model equations. The theory and application of two systems based upon computer calculus, GRESS and ADGEN, are discussed relative to their role in calculating model derivatives and sensitivities without a prohibitive initial manpower investment. Storage and computational requirements for these two systems are compared for a gradient-enhanced version of the PRESTO-II computer model. A Deterministic Uncertainty Analysis (DUA) method that retains the characteristics of analytically computing result uncertainties based upon parameter probability distributions is then introduced and results from recent studies are shown. 29 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: AC05-84OR21400
• OSTI ID: 6972370
• Report Number(s): CONF-880839-3; ON: DE88016785
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

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