Survivability of the hardened mobile launcher when attacked by a hypothetical rapidly retargetable ICBM system. Master's thesis

Technical Report · Sat Mar 01 04:00:00 UTC 1986

OSTI ID:6959731

Gearhart, D J; Merrow, S F

This thesis evaluates the survivability of the hardened mobile launcher system (HML) against a hypothetical enemy ICBM system. The hypothetical system has two key capabilities: it can obtain near real-time intelligence information regarding the HML's location, and it can be retargeted in flight (as necessary) according to the intelligence information. Thus, the hypothetical ICBM threat systems can attack individual HMLs directly rather than rely on a barrage attack against HML bases. Monte Carlo simulation is used to approach the problem. The model is an MBASIC computer program, written and runs on an Apple Macintosh computer. The model simulates the flight of the attacking ICBMs (there may be as few as one or as many as 14 warheads directed at each HML) and the random dispersal tactics of a single HML. The model determines the locations of the detonations and the location of the HML at time of detonation. Based on these locations, probability of kill due to peak-blast overpressure is calculated. A key parameter in the model is intelligence / retargeting cycle time -- the time required to obtain intelligence and retarget accordingly. This time is varied from 1-30 minutes. The model also allows variations in HML speed and hardness and threat system CEP. A subroutine for examining the effects of neutron fratricide on the attacking warheads is included (although the effects were found to be negligible). The thesis concludes that very small intelligence/retargeting cycle times are required for this to be an effective weapon system against the HML. Thus, with today's (or near future) technology, the HML can be considered a very survivable system.

• Research Organization: Air Force Inst. of Tech., Wright-Patterson AFB, OH (USA). School of Engineering
• OSTI ID: 6959731
• Report Number(s): AD-A-172453/3/XAB; AFIT/GST/ENS-86M-9
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEFENSE
450200* -- Military Technology
Weaponry
& National Defense-- Nuclear Explosions & Explosives
BARYONS
DETONATIONS
ELEMENTARY PARTICLES
FERMIONS
HADRONS
HARDENING
LAUNCHING
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
MILITARY FACILITIES
MISSILES
MONTE CARLO METHOD
NEUTRONS
NUCLEAR WEAPONS
NUCLEONS
PHYSICAL RADIATION EFFECTS
RADIATION EFFECTS
RADIATION HARDENING
SIMULATION
TIME DEPENDENCE
VULNERABILITY
WEAPONS