Inclusion of routine wind and turbulence forecasts in the Savannah River Plant's emergency response capabilities

Conference · Tue Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1980

OSTI ID:6948515

Pendergast, M. M.; Gilhousen, D. B.

The Savannah River Plant's emergency response computer system was improved by the implementation of automatic forecasts of wind and turbulence for periods up to 30 hours. The forecasts include wind direction, wind speed, and horizontal and vertical turbulence intensity at 10, 91, and 243 m above ground for the SRP area, and were obtained by using the Model Output Statistics (MOS) technique. A technique was developed and tested to use the 30-hour MOS forecasts of wind and turbulence issued twice daily from the National Weather Service at Suitland, Maryland, into SRP's emergency response program. The technique for combining MOS forecasts, persistence, and adjusted-MOS forecast is used to generate good forecasts any time of day. Wind speed and turbulence forecasts have been shown to produce smaller root mean square errors (RMSE) than forecasts of persistence for time periods over about two hours. For wind direction, the adjusted-MOS forecasts produce smaller RMSE than persistence for times greater than four hours.

• Research Organization: Du Pont de Nemours (E.I.) and Co., Aiken, SC (USA). Savannah River Lab.; National Weather Service, Silver Spring, MD (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: AC09-76SR00001
• OSTI ID: 6948515
• Report Number(s): DP-MS-80-52; CONF-801064-1
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

500100* -- Environment
Atmospheric-- Basic Studies-- (-1989)
500300 -- Environment
Atmospheric-- Radioactive Materials Monitoring & Transport-- (-1989)
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
COMPUTERS
DATA
DATA COMPILATION
EMERGENCY PLANS
ERRORS
FORECASTING
INFORMATION
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
MATHEMATICS
METEOROLOGY
MONITORING
NATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
NUMERICAL DATA
RADIATION MONITORING
SAVANNAH RIVER PLANT
STATISTICS
TURBULENCE
US AEC
US DOE
US ERDA
US ORGANIZATIONS
VELOCITY
WIND