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World oil - An essay on its spectacular 120-year rise (1859-1979), recent decline, and uncertain future

Journal Article · · Energy Syst. Policy; (United States)
OSTI ID:6940233
An analysis of the evolution of the oil security problems of import-dependent industrialized countries and of the rise and recent erosion of the market power of the major oil exporting countries, particularly those located in the Persian Gulf area. The counterproductive reaction of the United States and other large oil importers to the resulting oil supply and price instability, especially since the 1973-74 oil embargo, is critiqued. In addition, the synergism between the early commercialization of crude oil production and refining in the United States and the development of the automobile industry is discussed, and the long-term outlook for oil-base transportation fuels is assessed. OPEC's role in destabilizing the world oil market during the 1970s and its current efforts to restabilize it are evaluated, as is the likely future course of world oil prices and of U.S. and other non-OPEC production. An important finding of this study is that the share of oil in the world energy mix has peaked and will continue its downward trend and that recurring expectations for a sharp escalation of world oil prices and shortages are based on erroneous assessments of the fundamentals governing the oil business.
Research Organization:
Illinois Institute of Technology, Chicago, IL (US)
OSTI ID:
6940233
Journal Information:
Energy Syst. Policy; (United States), Journal Name: Energy Syst. Policy; (United States) Vol. 11:4; ISSN ESYPB
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English