Use of a simulation model in assessing the impacts of climate on the world food system

Thesis/Dissertation · Fri Dec 31 23:00:00 EST 1982

OSTI ID:6922600

Liverman, D M

The interdependencies between global environment and economy are such that changes in yield are reflected in changes in food supply, trade, and consumption. This dissertation assesses the value of a simulation model for studying the impacts of climate on the world food system. A prototypical global model (the International Futures Simulation) is tested for the sensitivity of major food-system variables to changes in crop yield. Crop yield is changed as a surrogate for climate, change, and variation. The response of the model to sudden, step, and trend changes in a crop-yield factor is monitored and compared statistically to the results of a standard run. The overall food-system model is shown to be sensitive to changes in crop yields, particularly to sudden and step changes in the US, South Asian, or all regions, as measured by world-accumulated starvation over the 1975-2000 time period. Secondly, an attempt is made to validate the model for the decade of the 1970's. This involves the comparison of output from a 1970-1980 simulation run with actual food-system data for the same period. Attempts are made to reduce the differences between simulation runs and real events by providing information on actual yield, trade, or other variables to the model. Although the model replicates starvation quite well, it cannot reproduce price and trade changes accurately even when given data on production and stock fluctuations.

• OSTI ID: 6922600
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
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290400* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Energy Resources
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60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES
CLIMATES
CROPS
FOOD
FOOD INDUSTRY
GLOBAL ASPECTS
INDUSTRY
YIELDS