Interpretation of probabilistic structural analysis of an aging passive component

Journal Article · Mon Aug 01 04:00:00 EDT 1994 · Journal of Pressure Vessel Technology; (United States)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1115/1.2929591· OSTI ID:6894525

Phillips, J H; Atwood, C L; Magleby, H L; Khericha, S T ^[1]

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1. EG G Idaho, Inc., Idaho Falls, ID (United States). Idaho National Engineering Lab.

This article describes a technique to calculate the risk from failure of passive components over time, and demonstrates the technique by applying it to a weld in the auxiliary feedwater (AFW) system. It uses a modified version of the PRAISE computer code to perform a probabilistic structural analysis to calculate the probability that crack growth due to aging would cause the weld to rupture. It then uses the weld rupture probability as input to a modified existing PRA to calculate the change in plant risk with time. The results show an insignificant effect on plant risk because of the low calculated rupture rate of the weld in this particular calculation over 48 yr of service. A decreasing yearly rupture rate for this weld is calculated. This results from infant mortality; that is, most of those initial flaws that will eventually lead to rupture will do so early in life.

• DOE Contract Number: AC07-76ID01570
• OSTI ID: 6894525
• Journal Information: Journal of Pressure Vessel Technology; (United States), Journal Name: Journal of Pressure Vessel Technology; (United States) Vol. 116:3; ISSN JPVTAS; ISSN 0094-9930
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

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