Changes in the global carbon cycle and the biosphere

Technical Report · Sat Jul 01 04:00:00 EDT 1978

OSTI ID:6882172

Olson, J S; Pfuderer, H A; Chan, Y H

Increases in atmospheric CO/sub 2/, risks of climatic change, and impacts from such change are reviewed. Needs for closer scrutiny of changes in organic carbon and in the patterns of the biosphere are explained. The organic carbon pool is considered here as a moderate source of CO/sub 2/, perhaps 1 to 3 Gtons/yr in recent years. The biosphere could become a net sink for CO/sub 2/ if it were managed optimally to minimize the future peak of atmospheric CO/sub 2/ and to maximize storage as well as production rates of organic carbon. A preliminary global computer model explores the implications of tropical and subtropical forest clearing as a nonfossil source of CO/sub 2/ as well as some limits on the biosphere's role as a potential sink. Because of these limits and the oceanic factors of carbonate buffering, slow physical circulation, and limited net sedimentation of carbon, models confirm that 4- to 7-fold increases of CO/sub 2/ could occur if projections of high fossil energy consumption were to materialize. Review of climatic changes does not support beliefs that cooling would become great enough to counteract the mean surface temperature rise of 2 to 9/sup 0/C in 100 years. Changes in climate pattern, temperature, drought, and waterlevel, and in their varied biological effects, would interact to change success of crops, other ecosystems, and many social institutions.

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: W-7405-ENG-26
• OSTI ID: 6882172
• Report Number(s): ORNL/EIS-109
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

500200* -- Environment
Atmospheric-- Chemicals Monitoring & Transport-- (-1989)
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
560303 -- Chemicals Metabolism & Toxicology-- Plants-- (-1987)
63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTANT EFFECTS ON LIVING ORGS. AND BIOL. MAT.
ANIMALS
ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITATIONS
BIOMASS
BIOSPHERE
CARBON COMPOUNDS
CARBON DIOXIDE
CARBON OXIDES
CHALCOGENIDES
CHEMICAL COMPOSITION
CHEMICAL REACTIONS
CLIMATES
COMBUSTION
COMPUTER CALCULATIONS
CROPS
EARTH ATMOSPHERE
ECOSYSTEMS
ENERGY SOURCES
ENVIRONMENT
ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
FORECASTING
FORESTS
FOSSIL FUELS
FUELS
GLOBAL ASPECTS
MAMMALS
MAN
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
OXIDATION
OXIDES
OXYGEN COMPOUNDS
PHOTOCHEMICAL REACTIONS
PHOTOSYNTHESIS
PLANTS
PRIMATES
RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES
SEAS
SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS
SURFACE WATERS
SYNTHESIS
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS
THERMOCHEMICAL PROCESSES
TIME DEPENDENCE
TREES
VARIATIONS
VERTEBRATES