Nuclear-effects model embedded stochastically in simulation (NEMESIS) summary report. Technical paper

Technical Report · Wed Nov 01 00:00:00 EST 1989

OSTI ID:6870885

Youngren, M A

An analytic probability model of tactical nuclear warfare in the theater is presented in this paper. The model addresses major problems associated with representing nuclear warfare in the theater. Current theater representations of a potential nuclear battlefield are developed in context of low-resolution, theater-level models or scenarios. These models or scenarios provide insufficient resolution in time and space for modeling a nuclear exchange. The model presented in this paper handles the spatial uncertainty in potentially targeted unit locations by proposing two-dimensional multivariate probability models for the actual and perceived locations of units subordinate to the major (division-level) units represented in theater scenarios. The temporal uncertainty in the activities of interest represented in our theater-level Force Evaluation Model (FORCEM) is handled through probability models of the acquisition and movement of potential nuclear target units.

• Research Organization: Army Concepts Analysis Agency, Bethesda, MD (USA)
• OSTI ID: 6870885
• Report Number(s): AD-A-222642/1/XAB; CAA-TP-89-8
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEFENSE
WARFARE
COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS
NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS
NUCLEAR WEAPONS
PROBABILITY
RESOLUTION
EXPLOSIONS
MATHEMATICS
SIMULATION
STATISTICS
WEAPONS
450400* - Military Technology
Weaponry
& National Defense- Nuclear & Radiological Warfare- (1990-)