Investment planning model for an oil shale industry in the Piceance Basin

Thesis/Dissertation · Fri Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1982

OSTI ID:6861535

Melton, Jr, J W

The Piceance Basin, a 1500 square-mile region in northwestern Colorado, contains roughly 600 billion barrels of recoverable oil in the form of oil shale. Water is scarce in the area, air quality is precious, and no industry is currently in place. In addition economics of oil shale conversion have not been established. The model developed and presented herein is a partial equilibrium model structured as a linear program. It is dynamic, representing the period 1990 to 2009. Water can be acquired locally or from a source distant from the Basin. Spent shale may be used to fill canyons, backfilled in underground mines, or transported from the Basin to a less environmentally sensitive area. Given the available resources, economics, discount rate, rate of escalation in World oil price, and plant cost, the solution indicates that in spite of great uncertainty over interest rates and the escalation rate of World oil price, development should proceed at a moderate pace, reaching a peak of 1.05 million barrels per day of oil in 2005. The model was found sensitive to discount rate, escalation rate of the World oil price, and capital cost of a plant. For any development scenario water was available. Air quality was also not a constraint in even the most optimistic case.

• OSTI ID: 6861535
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS
040800* -- Oil Shales & Tar Sands-- Economics
Industrial
& Business Aspects
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
ECONOMICS
GEOLOGIC DEPOSITS
INDUSTRY
INVESTMENT
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
MINERAL RESOURCES
OIL SHALE DEPOSITS
OIL SHALE INDUSTRY
PICEANCE CREEK BASIN
PLANNING
RESOURCES