Extended-range atmospheric prediction and the Lorenz model

Journal Article · Fri Jan 01 04:00:00 UTC 1993 · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society; (United States)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1993)074<0049:ERAPAT>2.0.CO;2· OSTI ID:6850279

Palmer, T N ^[1]

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1. ECMWF, Reading (United Kingdom)

The physical basis for extended-range prediction is explored using the famous three-component Lorenz convection model, taken as a conceptual representation of the chaotic extra tropical circulation, and extended by coupling to a linear oscillator to represent large-scale tropical-extra tropical interactions. The model is used to analyze the roles of time averaging and ensemble forecasting, and, in extended form, the impact of both anomalous tropical sea surface temperature and anomalous extratropical sea surface temperature. The conceptual paradigms and analytic calculations presented are used to interpret results from numerical weather prediction and general circulation model experiments. Some remarks on the relevance of predictability studies for the climate change problem are given.

• OSTI ID: 6850279
• Journal Information: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society; (United States), Journal Name: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society; (United States) Vol. 74:1; ISSN 0003-0007; ISSN BAMIAT
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
540110*
ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION
CLIMATE MODELS
CLIMATIC CHANGE
CONVECTION
ENERGY TRANSFER
FORECASTING
GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS
HEAT TRANSFER
MASS TRANSFER
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
TESTING
TROPICAL REGIONS
VALIDATION
WEATHER