The SIMRAND methodology: Theory and application for the simulation of research and development projects

Technical Report · Sat Feb 15 04:00:00 EST 1986

OSTI ID:6830124

Miles, Jr, R F

A research and development (R and D) project often involves a number of decisions that must be made concerning which subset of systems or tasks are to be undertaken to achieve the goal of the R and D project. To help in this decision making, SIMRAND (SIMulation of Research ANd Development Projects) is a methodology for the selection of the optimal subset of systems or tasks to be undertaken on an R and D project. Using alternative networks, the SIMRAND methodology models the alternative subsets of systems or tasks under consideration. Each path through an alternative network represents one way of satisfying the project goals. Equations are developed that relate the system or task variables to the measure of preference. Uncertainty is incorporated by treating the variables of the equations probabilistically as random variables, with cumulative distribution functions assessed by technical experts. Analytical techniques of probability theory are used to reduce the complexity of the alternative networks. Cardinal utility functions over the measure of preference are assessed for the decision makers. A run of the SIMRAND Computer I Program combines, in a Monte Carlo simulation model, the network structure, the equations, the cumulative distribution functions, and the utility functions. Repeated runs of the SIMRAND I Computer Program are made for each of the alternative networks to determine the optimal subset of systems or tasks. The SIMRAND methodology has been used by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, the Solar Energy Research Institute, and the US Department of Energy for the evaluation of solar-energy R and D projects.

• Research Organization: Jet Propulsion Lab., Pasadena, CA (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: AI01-85CE89008
• OSTI ID: 6830124
• Report Number(s): DOE/JPL-1012-117; JPL-PUB-85-98; ON: DE87005422
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

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