Analysis of the automobile market: modeling the long-run determinants of the demand for automobiles. Volume III - appendices to the Wharton EFA automobile demand model. Final report, Sep 75-Mar 77

Technical Report · Sat Dec 01 00:00:00 EST 1979

OSTI ID:6827990

Schink, G R; Loxley, C J

An econometric model is developed which provides long-run policy analysis and forecasting of annual trends, for U.S. auto stock, new sales, and their composition by auto size-class. The concept of 'desired' (equilibrium) stock is introduced. 'Desired stock' and its composition by size-class are related to numerous economic and demographic variables using cross-section data. Among them is a new 'capitalized cost per mile' measure, which expresses all costs over time relative to miles driven, discounted back to the present. New registrations, total and by class, and scrappage are found to be strongly related to 'desired stock' relative to actual stock, with other influences operating as 'speed of adjustment' factors. Fuel efficiency is analyzed in detail, relating mpg by class to physical vehicle characteristics and technological developments. Purchase prices and options expenditures are analyzed and all cost measures distinguished by foreign vs domestic origin as well as by size-class. Volume I summarizes and describes the study, and contains a forecast through 2000. Volume II contains extensive simulation analysis, with public policy implications. Volume III contains data and methodology appendices.

• Research Organization: Wharton (E.F.A.), Inc., Philadelphia, PA (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: DOT-TSC-1072
• OSTI ID: 6827990
• Report Number(s): PB-80-166580
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
29 ENERGY PLANNING
POLICY AND ECONOMY
AUTOMOBILES
DEMAND FACTORS
MARKETING RESEARCH
AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY
CAPITALIZED COST
DEMOGRAPHY
ECONOMETRICS
FORECASTING
FUEL CONSUMPTION
GOVERNMENT POLICIES
INVENTORIES
PRICES
SALES
COST
ECONOMICS
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
INDUSTRY
VEHICLES
320203* - Energy Conservation
Consumption
& Utilization- Transportation- Land & Roadway
298000 - Energy Planning & Policy- Consumption & Utilization