1986 GRI baseline projection of US energy supply and demand to 2010

Technical Report · Mon Dec 01 00:00:00 EST 1986

OSTI ID:6826657

Holtberg, P D; Woods, T J; Ashby, A B

This year's projection includes updated base year data, major improvements to the electric utility methodology, an expanded gas supply slate including incremental supplies from advanced gas supply technologies, and numerous assumption revisions. As a result of the dramatic fall in world oil prices that occurred in early 1986, this year has been a particularly difficult period in which to produce a forecast. The lower oil price track used in the 1986 baseline projection places strong competitive pressures on natural gas, particularly in the industrial and electric utility markets. The new projection confirms, however, that despite the recent oil price reduction and the unprecedented slump in drilling activity for both oil and gas, an orderly transition from the current gas bubble to a balanced supply situation can be accomplished. Over the longer term, abundant, feasible supply options exist to support a strong, competitive industry well into the next century. If commitments to new supply sources are made in a timely fashion, the long-range supply can support growth opportunities for gas markets, particularly in the electric utility sector. Further, the projection confirms that the major opportunities to sustain or increase natural gas consumption are closely related to the successful development of new gas utilization and gas supply technologies. New gas utilization technologies for applications such as cogeneration, cooling, and electric generation will help maintain the role of gas in serving overall US energy requirements in the coming years. This report presents a series of summary tables, sectoral breakdowns of energy demand, the natural gas supply and price trends, and a comparison with GRI's previous baseline projection. The appendices include a discussion of the methodology and assumptions used to prepare the 1986 projection and provide additional data and discussion of selected energy issues. 15 tabs.

• Research Organization: Gas Research Inst., Chicago, IL (USA)
• OSTI ID: 6826657
• Report Number(s): GRI-7900526; ON: TI87900526
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

03 NATURAL GAS
29 ENERGY PLANNING
POLICY AND ECONOMY
COAL
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
PRICES
ELECTRIC POWER
NATURAL GAS
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
PETROLEUM
USA
ENERGY SUPPLIES
COMMERCIAL SECTOR
COMPILED DATA
FORECASTING
HYDROELECTRIC POWER
INDUSTRY
NUCLEAR POWER
RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
TRANSPORTATION SECTOR
CARBONACEOUS MATERIALS
DATA
ENERGY SOURCES
FLUIDS
FOSSIL FUELS
FUEL GAS
FUELS
GAS FUELS
GASES
INFORMATION
MATERIALS
NORTH AMERICA
NUMERICAL DATA
POWER
030600* - Natural Gas- Economic
Industrial
& Business Aspects
294000 - Energy Planning & Policy- Fossil Fuels
292000 - Energy Planning & Policy- Supply
Demand & Forecasting