Global air pollution and climate change
Mankind has now demonstrated that it can change the composition of the atmosphere on a global scale. Those consequences of global air pollution which may have the greatest impact on society in the decades ahead are the associated changes in the radiation balance of the earth and atmosphere and the resulting change of climate. Carbon dioxide increase from the burning of fossil fuels at a continuously increasing rate can cause a 1/sup 0/C rise in mean surface temperatures by 2000 A.D., and 2-3/sup 0/C rise by the middle of the next century. There are uncertainties in this projection of mean temperature rise of perhaps a factor of two; and the polar regions are expected to experience an increase several times larger. Other anthropogenic influences, such as the addition to the atmosphere of chlorofluoromethanes, nitrous oxide, and possibly aerosols, may contribute still further to this global warming. The mean surface temperature of the earth by 2000 A.D., if our projection is correct, will be warmer than at any time in the past 1000 years or more. Accompanying such a climate change there will be shifts in the large scale atmospheric circulation patterns and significant alterations of regional temperature and precipitation distributions--favorable for some regions, unfavorable for others, although we cannot predict the details of these changes. This prospect, based on theoretical model calculations that scientists cannot prove to be fully credible ahead of time, challenges the decision makers of the world to decide whether to act together to avert the climate change, to wait for more research on the climate system to verify our theoretical models, or to do nothing at all. We must ask, How much proof is enough. Such major strategy decisions must, of course, be based on value judgments of the potential risks and benefits of a given course of action as well as on the scientific and technological factors involved.
- Research Organization:
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO
- OSTI ID:
- 6791837
- Journal Information:
- IEEE Trans. Geosci. Electron.; (United States), Vol. GE-16:1
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Related Subjects
CLIMATES
EARTH ATMOSPHERE
FOSSIL FUELS
ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS
RADIATION EFFECTS
AEROSOLS
AIR POLLUTION
CARBON DIOXIDE
CHLORINE
DECISION MAKING
FLUORINE
HEATING
MAN
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
METHANE
NITROGEN OXIDES
PLANNING
POLAR REGIONS
PRECIPITATION
TEMPERATURE EFFECTS
ALKANES
ANIMALS
CARBON COMPOUNDS
CARBON OXIDES
CHALCOGENIDES
COLLOIDS
CRYOGENIC FLUIDS
DISPERSIONS
ELEMENTS
ENERGY SOURCES
FLUIDS
FUELS
HALOGENS
HYDROCARBONS
MAMMALS
NITROGEN COMPOUNDS
NONMETALS
ORGANIC COMPOUNDS
OXIDES
OXYGEN COMPOUNDS
POLLUTION
PRIMATES
SEPARATION PROCESSES
SOLS
VERTEBRATES
500100* - Environment
Atmospheric- Basic Studies- (-1989)