Conservation by suppliers energy conservation potential from cogeneration. [Projections to year 2000]

Conference · Sun Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1978

OSTI ID:6785559

Karnitz, M

In 1977 heating, cooling, lighting, and other operations in residential and commercial buildings used 27 QBtu of energy. This is more than one-third of the nation's total energy budget. Future trends in buildings energy use are likely to depend strongly on fuel prices and government policies to save energy. Four scenarios are examined: (1). a high case in which real fuel prices remain constant from 1976 through 2000, (2). a baseline in which fuel prices rise as projected by the Department of Energy, (3). a conservation case that includes higher gas and oil prices plus the regulatory, financial incentive, and information programs authorized by the 94th Congress and proposed in the April 1977 National Energy Plan, and (4). another conservation case that also includes new technologies (more-efficient equipment, appliances, and structures). These scenarios are analyzed using two detailed engineering-economic models of energy use in residential and commercial buildings, developed at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Energy use in the year 2000 ranges from a high of 56 QBtu to a low of 39 QBtu with these four scenarios. Growth rates in buildings energy use for the 1977 to 2000 period range from 3.4 to 1.8%/year, compared with the historical growth rate of 4.0%/y from 1950 to 1977. Commercial energy growth is always faster than residential growth. Adopting the conservation programs of scenarios 3 and 4 cuts cumulative (1977 to 2000) energy use by 113 QBtu. In addition, these programs reduce the present worth (8% real interest rate) of energy-related expenditures by 49 billion dollars.

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: W-7405-ENG-26
• OSTI ID: 6785559
• Report Number(s): CONF-780959-1
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290800* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Heat Utilization-- (1980-)
AIR CONDITIONING
BUILDINGS
CHARGES
COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS
COMPARATIVE EVALUATIONS
ECONOMIC IMPACT
ECONOMICS
ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT
ENERGY CONSERVATION
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
ENERGY MODELS
ENERGY POLICY
EQUIPMENT
EVALUATION
FINANCIAL INCENTIVES
FORECASTING
FUELS
GOVERNMENT POLICIES
HEATING
LIGHTING SYSTEMS
NATIONAL ENERGY PLAN
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
SPACE HEATING
TECHNOLOGY UTILIZATION